Weekly Forex Market Analysis 15/03/2023 – SVB Fallout Continues

EURUSD – SVB fallout is still everywhere in the news, with the main focus being how will it impact the market and the upcoming Central Bank decisions. (We have ECB this week and only this time last week we were talking about the FED increasing by 50 bps). Back to the ECB who we expect to raise interest rates by 50 bps, we believe that if the markets don t stabilize by then then we feel they may be forced to do nothing which would mean EURUSD could drop much will depend on Thursday’s outcome. Yesterday, US CPI came in at the predicted level of 6%. Levels to watch out for are 1.0610 with a break opening way for 1.0500 whilst on the topside 1.0740 which is a Fibonacci level opening way for 1.0800.

GBPUSD – Things remain pretty loose for GBP as is evident by its recent wild ride. Well, it sells off the move is hard however, when the USD turns soft GBP is usually the first to rally the most. We have the UK spring budget today so we will have to wait for what Hunt is planning and also the debate on what the BoE will do next week after the re-pricing of rates we have just witnessed. 

We are still GBP sellers and would like to sell on rallies. 1.2110 and 1.2210 are the levels for now, with a break on the downside opening 1.2020 whilst on the topside opens up 1.2275.

AUDUSD – We have seen some decent demand in AUUDSD over the last couple of weeks as the dividend season draws to a close. We believe we may have seen the worst of position reduction in AUD and now expect to come in lower over the next few days. Of course, a lot will depend on today’s CPI print and also the upcoming FED meeting. 0.6630 and 0.6705 are the levels to watch, a break on either side will open the way for 0.6570 and 0.6785.

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